Author Topic: 2010 Competition time. (Read 6924 times)

pingpongrob · « **Reply #30 on:** January 19, 2010, 09:55:33 PM »

Quote from: speedplay on January 19, 2010, 09:30:51 PM

I'm wondering when Rob will announce the actual weight of the package so we get a winner for this competition.

Quote from: pingpongrob on January 10, 2010, 09:10:01 AM

This comp will run for 1 Month. So the ending Date will be 10th of Febuary - 2010.
No one is allowed to contact Speedplay to get the answer. Sorry Speedplay.

Honey · « **Reply #31 on:** January 19, 2010, 10:41:11 PM »

798g

Don't care if I don't win, but this is fun anyway Rob. Don't know why more people don't post on this forum when you do fun things like this every now and then.

speedplay · « **Reply #32 on:** January 20, 2010, 06:56:28 AM »

Sorry Rob, I missed that piece of info

Another thing that I miss is your review of the Best Anti

Cause I do think it was a Best Anti I traded with you for a Outlaw, wasn't it?

blue_smartie68 · « **Reply #33 on:** January 20, 2010, 08:09:05 AM »

"I'm wondering when Rob will announce the actual weight of the package so we get a winner for this competition."

Or at least give us higher/lower clues!

Peter C · « **Reply #34 on:** January 20, 2010, 10:58:03 AM »

820 grams

blue_smartie68 · « **Reply #35 on:** January 20, 2010, 11:21:59 AM »

Here's a list of taken numbers... just so it's easier to keep track of

400 Biggy
470 Shagga
505 5min
525 Shagga
537 Reb
555 Der
570 Der
580 Honey
593 JKC
612 Blue
615 Speedy
643 Reb
684 JKC
761 JKC
768 Blue
780 PF_4
792 Blue
798 Honey
800 Geko
820 Peter C

pingpongrob · « **Reply #36 on:** January 20, 2010, 10:59:31 PM »

Thanks Blue_Smartie68 for compiling the List, saved me some work.

400 Biggy To Low
470 Shagga
505 5min
525 Shagga
537 Reb
555 Der
570 Der
580 Honey
593 JKC
612 Blue
615 Speedy he's not supposed to be guessing
643 Reb
684 JKC
761 JKC
768 Blue
780 PF_4
792 Blue
798 Honey
800 Geko
820 Peter C To High

This should narrow it down a little,

shagga · « **Reply #37 on:** January 21, 2010, 08:53:39 AM »

720 grams???

Need a guess in between JKC so he doesn't have too much leeway with his guesses

RebornTTEvnglist · « **Reply #38 on:** January 21, 2010, 01:44:16 PM »

Well i that case Shagga, I'm gonna go with 700g just to go smack bang about middle LOL.

Peter C · « **Reply #39 on:** January 23, 2010, 03:39:03 AM »

Then i'll try 650 grams

gekogark1212 · « **Reply #40 on:** January 23, 2010, 12:59:39 PM »

Second guess comes from the physicist in me:
769g (anyone notice it's the weighted average of all guesses with respect to my 1st guess? hehe ^^)

Honey · « **Reply #41 on:** January 23, 2010, 09:19:31 PM »

At the end of it all, I would actually be very interested to see how close the average of all our guesses is to the actual answer. The wisdom of crowds can be amazing!

gekogark1212 · « **Reply #42 on:** January 23, 2010, 10:21:47 PM »

So far it looks like:

400 Biggy To Low
470 Shagga
505 5min
525 Shagga
537 Reb
555 Der
570 Der
580 Honey
593 JKC
612 Blue
615 Speedy he's not supposed to be guessing
643 Reb
650 Peter C
684 JKC
700 Reb
720 Shagga
761 JKC
768 Blue
769 Geko
780 PF_4
792 Blue
798 Honey
800 Geko
820 Peter C To High

Now for some stats: 24 votes so far, with the average being 651.958g, and the standard deviation being 117.23. There appears to be some skewing towards the lower end, but what degree I'll have to run it through shazam (econometrics program) to find out. In layman's terms: guess more towards the higher end guys!

pingpongrob · « **Reply #43 on:** January 23, 2010, 11:18:37 PM »

What I can't understand is where is all the research. Wouldn't it be easy to ask what each individual item weigh's, and then do the sums. I'm sure members on mytt & Denis have the answers.

RebornTTEvnglist · « **Reply #44 on:** January 24, 2010, 12:42:05 AM »

Maybe so Rob, but the fact is they probably won't know the packaging weight and then we don't know how many times your cello wrap goes around and what it weighs. So still a few unknowns anyway. Besides, where's the fun in being too scientific LOL.

JKC · « **Reply #45 on:** January 24, 2010, 06:29:37 AM »

I think I am due another guess.
I'll try 821g.

blue_smartie68 · « **Reply #46 on:** January 24, 2010, 08:30:31 AM »

JKC... I don't think you are paying attention!

Ok, my extremely complex scientific research (dart thrown with eyes closed... similar action to some of my TT smashes actually!

).... has lead me to my next guess off 498g

speedplay · « **Reply #47 on:** January 24, 2010, 10:10:08 AM »

Despite being out of the competition, I tried a little scientific way to get a fair estimation of the weight. I simple went to the shop and added all the items to my basket, then I checked the estimated weight for it

Unfortunately, this landed me on 930 grams, which is to heavy

Darn scientific approaches!

Der Echte · « **Reply #48 on:** January 24, 2010, 10:44:40 AM »

I am eligible for another at bat. I guess 605 grams.

If all of us rapidly read this thread and make guesses at a fast pace, we all get MOAR guesses. Let's speed it up.

PF_4 · « **Reply #49 on:** January 24, 2010, 07:09:55 PM »

My second guess....760g

Honey · « **Reply #50 on:** January 24, 2010, 08:28:36 PM »

Will try again, 680g

Honey · « **Reply #51 on:** January 24, 2010, 09:01:31 PM »

Seeing as a few people seem to like stats on here:

Just something I whipped up based on guesses upto my last guess:

Name, Guesses, Total margin (g), Average Margin (g)
Shagga, 3, 55, 18.33
Biggy, 1, 35, 35
Reb, 3, 28, 9.33
Blue, 4, 27, 6.75
PF_4 , 2, 25.5, 12.75
Honey, 3, 23, 7.67
Der, 3, 22.5, 7.5
Peter C, 2, 13.5, 6.75
JKC, 4, 9.5, 2.38
5min, 1, 3.5, 3.5
Speedy, 1, 1.5, 1.5
Geko, 2, 1.5, 0.75

(couldn't get the table to format properly, so had to do it like this.)

The margin is the amount of leeway they have to win. So taking their guess and the guesses next to them, and the midpoint of that. The midpoint and their guess becomes the margin.

So, you could say that Shagga has the best chance of winning, and Biggy has the most tactically placed guess. This doesn't take into account for alot of things though.

Quite interesting, you can see who is placing the best guesses in terms of space.

RebornTTEvnglist · « **Reply #52 on:** January 25, 2010, 12:23:12 AM »

Well I count 7 since my last so my next guess is 742g. Seems I need one up in the higher eshilon considering Speedplay's scientific method LOL. I do recall Rob sending me a package as one of my orders a while ago now and he said it was 503g and just snuck into the 500g pack and it didn't have as much in it as Speedplay's did. So I am thinking Blue's 498g is on the low side LOL. But then this could be a red herring to sway your stats to my advantage!!

pingpongrob · « **Reply #53 on:** January 25, 2010, 04:54:56 PM »

Quote from: speedplay on January 24, 2010, 10:10:08 AM

Despite being out of the competition, I tried a little scientific way to get a fair estimation of the weight. I simple went to the shop and added all the items to my basket, then I checked the estimated weight for it

Unfortunately, this landed me on 930 grams, which is to heavy Darn scientific approaches!

Thats because your not taking in the packaging weight for each item. As a group, you may have 100g packaging.

Peter C · « **Reply #54 on:** January 26, 2010, 04:30:52 AM »

I'll go 764 grams then.

shagga · « **Reply #55 on:** January 27, 2010, 03:19:00 PM »

I'll go with 740 grams now.

gekogark1212 · « **Reply #56 on:** January 29, 2010, 07:41:53 AM »

Oh oh, my turn! Yay, 755g for my 3rd attempt! Which makes:

400 Biggy To Low
470 Shagga
498 Blue
505 5min
525 Shagga
537 Reb
555 Der
570 Der
580 Honey
593 JKC
605 Der
612 Blue
615 Speedy he's not supposed to be guessing
643 Reb
650 Peter C
680 Honey
684 JKC
700 Reb
720 Shagga
740 Shagga
742 Reb
755 Geko
760 PF_4
761 JKC
764 Peter C
768 Blue
769 Geko
780 PF_4
792 Blue
798 Honey
800 Geko
820 Peter C
821 JKC To High

blue_smartie68 · « **Reply #57 on:** January 29, 2010, 10:57:43 AM »

Thanks Gek for updating the list

Ok, hmmmm... how about 666g

lol

shagga · « **Reply #58 on:** February 01, 2010, 09:16:14 AM »

C'mon people, start guessing!

PF_4 · « **Reply #59 on:** February 01, 2010, 11:09:40 AM »

730 grams

News:

Author Topic: 2010 Competition time. (Read 6924 times)